Higher Education's Mixed Signals: Growth Amid Closures and Federal Restructuring

A Professional Analysis for Higher Education Leaders

Enrollment Trends: A Tale of Domestic Growth and International Decline

The latest enrollment data reveals a complex landscape where domestic recovery masks international education challenges.

Positive Domestic Momentum

For the third consecutive year, U.S. higher education enrollment has grown, with preliminary fall 2025 data showing a 2.0% overall increase. This growth is primarily driven by undergraduate enrollment, which rose 2.4% compared to fall 2024. Community colleges continue to lead recovery efforts, posting a robust 4% growth rate – double the national average.

The State University of New York (SUNY) system exemplifies this trend, reporting 2.9% growth to reach 387,363 students. SUNY's success stems from strategic initiatives including the Reconnect program, which provides free community college access to adults aged 25-55 in high-demand fields like nursing and engineering. As of November 13, 5,608 students are enrolled through this program, saving an average of $2,000 annually.

International Student Crisis

The positive domestic trends are overshadowed by a significant decline in international enrollment. New international student enrollment dropped 17% in fall 2025 – the largest non-pandemic decline in eleven years. This follows a 7% decrease in the 2024-25 academic year, indicating a sustained downward trajectory.

According to the Institute of International Education, 96% of surveyed institutions cited visa application concerns as a major obstacle to enrollment. The economic implications are substantial: NAFSA estimates a $1.1 billion loss to the U.S. economy and impact on more than 355,000 jobs. The organization notes that for every three international students, one U.S. job is created or supported.

Discipline-Specific Challenges

While overall enrollment grows, computer science programs face declining interest, bucking the trend of technology-driven career preparation. This decline raises questions about market saturation and evolving student preferences in STEM fields.

Institutional Closures and Consolidations: The Sustainability Crisis Continues

Despite enrollment recovery, financial pressures continue forcing institutional closures and mergers across the sector.

Recent Closures

November 2025 brought several notable closure announcements:

• Sterling College (Vermont): The environmental-focused institution with under 40 students announced closure, citing the responsible decision to support student transitions
• Trinity Christian College (Illinois): Will close at the end of the 2025-26 academic year due to "significant and rapidly evolving financial challenges"

These join a growing list of 2025 closures, including Siena Heights University, The Kings College, Bacone College, and St. Andrews University. The pattern particularly affects small, private institutions struggling with enrollment and financial sustainability.

Strategic Mergers and Partnerships

Some institutions pursue consolidation as a survival strategy:

• Elon University and Queens University of Charlotte: Announced merger intentions to better serve Charlotte's educational and workforce needs
• New Jersey City University and Kean University: Signed definitive merger agreement, with NJCU becoming "Kean Jersey City"
• Penn State System Restructuring: Board approved closing seven commonwealth campuses by spring 2027, reducing the system to 13 locations

These mergers reflect strategic responses to demographic pressures and financial constraints, particularly affecting smaller branch campuses and specialized institutions.

Department of Education Restructuring: Federal Decentralization Accelerates

The most significant policy development involves unprecedented restructuring of the federal education administration.

Interagency Agreements

On November 19, 2025, the Department of Education announced six new interagency agreements transferring program management to other federal agencies:

• Department of Labor: Assuming management of K-12 and postsecondary education programs to better align with workforce development
• Department of Interior: Taking over Indian Education programs for elementary, secondary, and higher education
• Department of Health and Human Services: Managing foreign medical school accreditation and campus childcare programs
• Department of State: Overseeing international education and foreign language studies programs

Administrative Rationale

Education Secretary Linda McMahon described the moves as "bold action to break up the federal education bureaucracy and return education to the states." The administration argues these partnerships will "streamline federal education activities," reduce administrative burdens, and leverage partner agencies' expertise.

Political and Practical Implications

Critics view this restructuring as part of broader efforts to dismantle the Department of Education. Democrats have criticized the administration for "slashing resources," while education advocates raise concerns about program continuity and institutional relationships.

Looking Forward: Implications for Higher Education Leaders

For Enrollment Management: Institutions must develop strategies addressing both domestic growth opportunities and international enrollment challenges. Community colleges and adult learner programs show particular promise, while international recruitment requires navigating complex visa landscapes.

For Financial Planning: The closure trend emphasizes the need for rigorous financial sustainability planning, particularly for smaller institutions. Merger and partnership discussions should begin early, before financial crisis forces hasty decisions.

For Federal Relations: The Department of Education restructuring requires institutions to develop new relationships with multiple federal agencies.

November 2025's developments underscore higher education's continued transformation. While enrollment recovery provides optimism, international challenges, institutional closures, and federal restructuring demand strategic leadership and adaptive planning. Institutions that proactively address these challenges while capitalizing on growth opportunities will be best positioned for future success.